I will be writing a weekly column for the Atlantic Council’s BelarusAlert and reposting here. Below is my column from January 13, 2021.
Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s call on January 10 for closer integration with Russia “without any obstacles whatsoever” is just one example of the beleaguered Belarusian leader’s frantic and increasingly desperate efforts to please Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Another example is Belarus acquiescing to Moscow’s long-standing demand that it export refined petroleum products via Russian ports – something Lukashenka had been resisting for years. Yet another was an agreement allowing Russia’s National Guard troops to operate in Belarus.
The fact that Lukashenka has no place to turn other than Russia has been obvious since the current crackdown on protesters began in August 2020 following a disputed Belarusian presidential election. The Lukashenka regime’s violent response to pro-democracy protests across the country has foreclosed any possiblity of rapprochement with the West.
Less obvious has been what Putin would do with this newfound leverage over his wayward client. Continue reading…
