I will be writing a weekly column for The Atlantic Council’s BelarusAlert and reposting here. Below is my column from February 10, 2021.
Recent reports that Russia and Belarus are planning to hold a record number of joint military exercises this year are more than just the latest sign that Alyaksandr Lukashenka is retreating deeply into the Kremlin’s embrace.
They also suggest that Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin regime is moving closer to achieving its longstanding goal of establishing a permanent military base on Belarusian soil.
The majority of this year’s military drills will take place in the runup to Zapad-2021, the massive quadrennial joint Russian-Belarusian exercises that are scheduled for September. Kremlin mouthpiece Izvestia is reporting that in the months prior to Zapad-2021, the two countries’ forces will focus on establishing “a logistical base” to facilitate supply lines to support Russian troops for an extended period.
“The Zapad 2021 exercises will likely support Putin’s efforts to establish a continuous Russian military presence in Belarus,” George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War wrote recently.
Putin has long been trying to turn Belarus into a de facto extension of Russia’s Western Military District. Continue reading…
