Lukashenko, Wagner, and the Future of Belarus
Over the past month, Belarus has been increasingly in the spotlight, with the announcement of the Wagner Group’s relocation to the country following its aborted mutiny in Russia at the end of June. While it remains to be seen exactly what role Wagner forces will have in Belarus going forward, their presence is likely to have significant implications for the future of Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko’s regime and its relations with the Kremlin. This most recent development comes within a broader context of closer ties between Belarus and Russia over the past couple of years, including a renewed push for integration under the Union State framework and notable moves such as the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. At the same time, the legacy of mass protests in Belarus following stolen elections in 2020 continues to exert a powerful influence, as significant questions remain about the stability of the Lukashenko regime despite its increasingly repressive measures. To discuss all of this and more, Brian Whitmore and Ryhor Astapenia join the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts.