By Brian Whitmore
The fierce Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion is getting inside the heads of Belarusian soldiers, officers, and officials.
Ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, there has been persistent speculation about when or whether Belarusian forces would join the offensive. But recently, reports have surfaced that both rank-and-file soldiers and senior officers in Belarus are reluctant to cross the Ukrainian border.
One look at the situation on the ground provides an important hint why this is the case. Valery Sakhashchyk, a retired army lieutenant colonel and former commander of the 38th Airborne Brigade who is now living in exile in Poland, told Politico that “the excellent work of the Ukrainian forces is the most important factor” deterring Belarus from joining the invasion. “Nobody expected such a rebuff,” he added. “The actions of the Ukrainian army, territorial defense forces, and the population have exceeded all expectations.”
This reluctance, he added, is trickling up to the senior political leadership, including the autocratic Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka.
“The Belarusian army has never fought anywhere, the army is not prepared for external conflicts,” Sakhashchyk commented. “Lukashenka is far from being a fool. He understands there is a large risk the Belarusian army will not succeed, that it will suffer heavy losses, and then his last supporters could very well turn away from him, and that would be a disaster” for the Belarusian dictator.